The Watch

A six-month board of the dates that actually move things: elections, leader summits, central-bank sittings, the oil meeting. Confirmed days only. No guessed weeks. First posted Friday, August 28, 2026. The morning and evening briefs will carry a short Coming Up strip for the week ahead. This page is the board.

Coming up this week

October 5–9 (done) — Quebec elected a Parti Québécois minority government; the U.S. Supreme Court term is under way; the Nobel medicine prize went to Deisseroth, Hegemann and Nagel, physics to Francis Halzen for IceCube at the South Pole, chemistry to Henri Kagan and Kenso Soai, literature to Anne Carson, and peace to Navi Pillay; Haiti’s electoral council postponed its December 13 and February 21 votes indefinitely; Israel marked three years since the October 7 attack; New Zealand candidate nominations closed. October 12 (done) — the Nobel economics prize, the last of this year’s, went to Robert Hall and Michael Woodford. October 12–18 (done) — IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings, Bangkok (nearly half the IMF steering-committee delegates walked out on Russia’s finance minister on October 17). October 15–16 (done) — European Council, Brussels; a special EU budget summit is set for November 26. October 19 (done) — Alberta voted to stay in Canada: with more than 1.5 million votes counted, 76% chose to remain and close to 24% backed starting the process toward a binding independence vote (unofficial Elections Alberta results). October 25 — Brazil presidential runoff (Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula); Serbia snap parliamentary election. October 27 — Israel’s election for the 26th Knesset. October 27–28 — Federal Open Market Committee, Washington. November 7 — New Zealand general election. November 29 — Spain general election.

The calendar

Black days are Watch dates. Click a day to jump to the note.

August 30–September 4 — Palau. 55th Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting.

August 31–September 1 — Asheville. G20 finance ministers and central bank governors. Treasury hosts the money track toward the December leaders’ summit in Miami.

September 1 — Bishkek. Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Council of Heads of State. 25th anniversary sitting.

September 9–10 — Berlin. ECB rate decision, hosted by the Bundesbank. (On the honorable list; the next euro print that can move a week.)

September 12–13 — New Delhi. 18th BRICS summit, Bharat Mandapam. India chairs. MEA confirmed the days on August 28.

September 13 — Sweden. Riksdag, regions, municipalities. First general election since NATO accession.

September 15–16 — Washington. Federal Open Market Committee, with the Summary of Economic Projections. Last dot plot before the US midterms. Also October 27–28, December 8–9, January 26–27.

September 20 — Russia. State Duma election. Set by presidential decree No. 428, June 16, 2026.

September 22–26 and 28 — New York. UN General Assembly 81st session, high-level week. The session itself opens September 8. Climate, sea-level, and pandemic meetings sit in the same week.

October 4 — Brazil (first round complete). October 25 — Brazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro vs Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. President, governors, Congress. TSE calendar.

October 25 — Serbia. Snap parliamentary election, called September 9 when Aleksandar Vučić signed a decree dissolving parliament; he later resigned the presidency and is expected to run for prime minister. The student-led protest movement that began after the November 2024 Novi Sad station canopy collapse is the main challenge to his Serbian Progressive Party. (Balkan Insight)

October 12–18 (done) — Bangkok. IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings. G20 finance ministers are in the same city October 15. On October 17 nearly half the delegates at the IMF steering committee, including Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, walked out when Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov spoke; chair Mohammed al-Jadaan said all members still agreed the chair’s statement. (The Guardian)

October 15–16 (done) — Brussels. European Council. Leaders closed ranks behind Zelenskyy and condemned the US–Russia diesel deal, but reached no deal on the 2028–2034 budget (MFF); the Irish negotiating box is dead and Council President António Costa takes over, with a special summit called for November 26. (Euronews)

October 19 (done) — Alberta, Canada. Provincial referendum: stay in Canada, or move ahead with a formal, binding independence referendum at a later date. Result: Albertans chose to remain. With more than 1.5 million votes counted, 76% voted to stay and close to 24% backed starting the separation process, according to unofficial Elections Alberta results (NPR/AP). Late-opening polls pushed results back by more than two hours; the nine other ballot questions could take days to count (The Guardian). Premier Danielle Smith has said there will be no independence referendum while she is premier; separatist leaders say they will keep campaigning (BBC).

October 27 — Israel. Election for the 26th Knesset. First on-schedule Israeli election since 1988.

November 3 — United States. Midterms: House, 35 Senate seats, 36 governors.

November 7 — New Zealand. General election. Writ issued October 4; candidate nominations close at noon October 8. Elections NZ.

November 9–20 — Antalya. COP31. Türkiye hosts; Australia is President of Negotiations. Leaders’ segment November 11–12.

November 18–19 — Shenzhen. APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting. Xi hosts the Pacific rim nine days after the US vote, in the middle of COP31.

November 29 — OPEC+. 42nd ministerial. The June meeting left production levels in place through December 31; this sitting is the 2027 baseline.

November 29 — Spain. Snap general election, called October 5 by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez after parliament rejected his housing decrees. Was not due until 2027. Same day as OPEC+.

Haiti — postponed. On October 6 the Provisional Electoral Council postponed indefinitely the December 13 first round and the February 21, 2027 runoff, citing technical and operational requirements; it says a new timetable “will be made public as soon as possible.” Voter registration continues. No new date yet (France 24 / AFP).

December 14–15 — Miami. G20 Leaders’ Summit, Trump National Doral. First US-hosted G20 since 2008. Treasury dated it.

December 17–18 — Brussels. Year-end European Council. If October did not close the MFF, this is the last scheduled sitting of the Irish presidency to do it.

December 31 / January 1 — United Nations. António Guterres’s term ends. The tenth secretary-general takes office January 1, 2027. The Assembly has not yet set a vote date. The name is not known. The handover day is.

January 18–22, 2027 — Davos. World Economic Forum Annual Meeting.

January 26–27, 2027 — Washington. First FOMC of 2027.

February 3–4, 2027 — Frankfurt. ECB.

February 12–14, 2027 — Munich. 63rd Munich Security Conference. Official MSC date.

The 20, by weight

1. US midterms — November 3, 2026.
2. G20 leaders — December 14–15, Miami.
3. UNGA high-level week — September 22–28, New York.
4. Brazil runoff — October 25 (Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula).
5. COP31 — November 9–20, Antalya.
6. APEC leaders — November 18–19, Shenzhen.
7. BRICS — September 12–13, New Delhi.
8. Israel, 26th Knesset — October 27.
9. UN secretary-general handover — January 1, 2027.
10. SCO heads of state — September 1, Bishkek.
11. Fed, with projections — September 15–16.
12. IMF / World Bank — October 12–18, Bangkok.
13. European Council (budget) — October 15–16, Brussels.
14. Russia, State Duma — September 20.
15. Munich Security Conference — February 12–14, 2027.
16. Davos — January 18–22, 2027.
17. Sweden — September 13.
18. Pacific Islands Forum — August 30–September 4, Palau.
19. European Council — December 17–18, Brussels.
20. OPEC+ ministerial — November 29.

On the board, not in the 20

G20 finance in Asheville this weekend. ECB, Bank of Japan, Bank of England remaining sittings. G20 trade ministers in Milwaukee, September 30–October 1. European Political Community in Ireland, November 12. Haiti’s new CEP election timetable, once published (the December 13 and February 21 dates were postponed October 6). US jobs and CPI prints as they come (BLS). ASEAN leaders in Manila in November — host and month are firm; the public calendar does not yet lock the leaders’ days.

Not on the board, because nobody has published a day: the next NATO summit (Albania will host; no date), G7 2027, the African Union assembly in February 2027, a Trump–Xi state visit, a US debt-ceiling X-date. France’s presidential first round is April 18, 2027, just outside this window. Kenya is August 10, 2027.

Sources: US Treasury; g20.org; United Nations; UNFCCC; Federal Reserve; ECB; US FEC; Brazil TSE; Swedish Election Authority; Kremlin (decree No. 428); SCO; Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat; IMF; European Council / Irish Presidency; OPEC; Munich Security Conference; davos.ch; India MEA via CNBC-TV18, August 28; Times of Israel / Jerusalem Post on the Knesset date; Elections NZ; BBC and AP on Spain’s November 29 date; NobelPrize.org; France 24 / AFP on Haiti’s October 6 postponement; BBC on Alberta’s October 19 referendum; NPR/AP and The Guardian on the October 20 result; Balkan Insight on Serbia’s October 25 vote.