Volodymyr Zelenskyy says U.S. missile warnings are flowing again after talks in Oslo, and Steve Witkoff heads to Russia next; Nigeria has confirmed its first Ebola case; and the toll from Sudan’s weekend of army drone strikes has passed 300. Ten stories as of Tuesday evening, October 20.
1. Oslo / Norway, and Kyiv / Ukraine. After sitting down with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff in Oslo, with Jared Kushner on a video link, Zelenskyy said U.S. intelligence sharing on incoming Russian missiles “works now,” BBC News reported. “We are thankful to American side, now it works, it’s great,” he said of the early warnings. Finland’s President Alexander Stubb said “genuine progress” was made but gave no details; a U.S. official called the talks “very productive and constructive” and confirmed Witkoff will meet Vladimir Putin in Russia on Wednesday. The talks covered security guarantees, a postwar economic plan and Europe’s wider security setup, a U.S. official told Reuters, per The Guardian. Back at the White House, Donald Trump said “Ukraine has to want to settle this war,” and on getting the two sides together: “I don’t care how it’s done,” Al Jazeera reported. The Wall Street Journal reported that Elon Musk himself ordered last week’s slowdown of Starshield, the military version of Starlink that Ukraine’s drone units rely on, per CNBC; Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said, “We haven’t pulled anything back.” Russian drones killed at least 10 people across Ukraine on Tuesday, and NATO said it’s sending more patrol aircraft, radar systems and drones to the Black Sea after Russia hit five more cargo ships, The Guardian reported. Zelenskyy on the guarantees:
2. Abuja / Nigeria, and Kenya. Nigeria confirmed an Ebola case in its capital after a woman who arrived from Uganda tested positive, NPR/AP reported. She began showing symptoms on October 7 and was admitted to a private hospital on October 11; Health Minister Muhammad Ali Pate said 44 contacts are being traced. Uganda’s health ministry says she only passed through on the way back from a business trip to eastern Congo and that Uganda has no active cases, per The Guardian. “We are facing an extremely serious threat,” said Africa CDC chief Jean Kaseya, calling this Bundibugyo outbreak the most geographically extensive in history. It has caused more than 9,500 cases and at least 4,600 deaths in Congo, and there’s no approved vaccine or treatment for this strain, BBC News reported. Kenya now has nine confirmed cases, all linked to its first patient; health officials said Tuesday evening the eight still being treated are improving, per BBC News.
3. West Kordofan / Sudan, and Abyei. The death toll from drone strikes blamed on Sudan’s army has passed 300, BBC News reported. The Sudan War Observatory says 150 people died in West Kordofan on Sunday evening, 145 of them when a truck carrying about 200 mourners was hit as it arrived in Al-Dabab. In Abyei, the disputed area Sudan and South Sudan jointly run, the region’s information minister now says 153 people were killed when drones hit a market on Monday, up from 73 this morning. A military source told the BBC the army carried out the Abyei strike, calling the market an RSF fuel supply site. South Sudan summoned Sudan’s ambassador, and the UN says 20 million people in Sudan face acute hunger.
4. Tehran / Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and Cairo / Egypt. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian told Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, that Washington “must lift its pressures, threats and sanctions before any negotiations,” according to an Iranian readout, CBS News reported. Trump, asked about Iran, said: “Do we want to win the nice way or the not nice way? But we’re doing very well.” The Revolutionary Guards said two tankers were set ablaze after hitting their mines on a route south of the strait that Tehran calls unauthorized; neither ship was named, per Euronews, and maritime monitors have repeatedly found no substantiation for earlier Iranian mine claims, gCaptain reported. Brent crude hit a five-month high Tuesday, per CNBC. In Egypt, President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has asked parliament to authorize the military to help defend Saudi Arabia from Houthi attacks; a vote expected Tuesday was pushed to next Monday, CBS News reported. And at Windsor, King Charles praised Oman’s “noble efforts” to help reopen Hormuz as the sultan began a state visit.
5. Paris, Marseille and Limoges / France. Police arrested a 34-year-old suspect linked to a far-left movement over the fire that gutted Limoges’ 19th-century city hall during Saturday’s unrest; French media say he’s on a national security watchlist, BBC News reported. The curfews keep spreading: Paris extended its overnight curfew “for as long as it proves necessary,” Marseille imposed one for minors in commercial areas from Tuesday to Friday, Bordeaux started a week-long overnight curfew, and Lyon, Nice and Lille kept theirs. Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin said 149 people are in detention, and Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu promised a big police presence at Saturday’s planned protest. More than 3,000 shops and businesses were looted Saturday, according to French reports, and the National Assembly’s president has proposed a parliamentary inquiry, per BBC News.
6. Fairford, Gloucestershire / United Kingdom. Counter-terrorism police re-arrested two men, a 24-year-old British national and a 25-year-old dual British-Iranian national, on suspicion of assisting a foreign intelligence service, in an investigation police say relates to Iran, BBC News reported. It follows the September 27 incident when three vans carrying petrol were found near RAF Fairford, the U.S.-run airbase used for strikes on Iran this year; no explosive devices were found. Seven men have been arrested in all. “We consider it highly likely that there is Iranian state involvement,” said Assistant Commissioner Laurence Taylor, head of counter-terrorism policing.
7. Wangaratta / Victoria, Australia. Brendan Nugent, 43, appeared in Wangaratta Magistrates’ Court over the attack on MP Helen Haines; his lawyer said he has a rare neurological condition and isn’t currently medicated, no bail was sought, and he’ll be back in court in February, ABC News reported. Police added charges of cultivating and possessing cannabis. Victoria Police and the AFP say they haven’t ruled out further charges, including attempted murder, and will look at whether he had links to the sovereign citizen movement, per ABC News. Chief Commissioner Mike Bush called it “a deliberate but isolated act,” saying police had no intelligence on him beforehand. Haines remains critical but stable.
8. Edmonton / Alberta, Canada, and Washington. In an address to Albertans on Tuesday, Premier Danielle Smith called the turnout “historic” and said that as long as she’s premier she “will not be holding another referendum on this issue,” BBC News reported. Prime Minister Mark Carney called the result a “great result” for Canada and said he was “thrilled that Albertans have chosen unity.” Meanwhile in the U.S., the group that won the case against Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs filed a new suit over his 50% levy on about $20bn of Canadian goods, on behalf of a New Jersey cheese importer, arguing the White House misused a 1930 trade law, BBC News reported.
9. Brasília / Brazil. President Lula’s campaign was set to ask Brazil’s top electoral court on Tuesday to disqualify Flávio Bolsonaro over alleged “algorithmic manipulation” by Meta to bury Lula’s content and boost his rival, France 24 reported, citing AFP. Meta said Tuesday it has complied with the court’s order to treat both candidates equally, per AP, and denies favouring either side. The Bolsonaro camp has filed seven actions of its own seeking to annul Lula’s ticket, according to Folha de S.Paulo. Polls show a technical tie ahead of Sunday’s runoff.
10. New Delhi / India. About two dozen independent UN experts called on India to stop using “excessive force” against opposition and student protesters and to open an impartial investigation, citing injuries, reported ill-treatment and reports of sexual violence in detentions, Al Jazeera reported. The protests, led by the Cockroach Janta Party, demand the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar after 130 million names were removed from voter lists. The Election Commission says it removed duplicate, dead and ineligible voters, and India has dismissed such criticism as interference.
Coming Up
Confirmed dates on The Watch: October 25, Brazil’s presidential runoff (Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula). October 27, Israel’s election for the 26th Knesset, and the Fed’s two-day meeting opens in Washington (October 27–28). Full board at the link.
