A Russian drone struck a Ukrainian passenger train near the Polish border; Oman postponed Monday’s Iran–Gulf Hormuz meeting with no new date; and a Reuters poll finds most economists now expect the Fed to hike a quarter point this week. Ten stories as of Monday morning, September 14.
1. Yahodyn / Poland border. A Russian drone struck the locomotive of a Kyiv–Warsaw passenger train about 2 km from the Polish border at Yahodyn shortly after former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European security officials had passed on another train, the BBC and Reuters reported. Ukrainian rail operator Ukrzaliznytsia said there were no casualties and that passengers had been evacuated about 15 minutes earlier. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk convened an emergency meeting as Poland issued air-threat alerts in border counties of Lublin Voivodeship.
2. Salalah / Strait of Hormuz. Oman postponed Monday’s meeting in Salalah between Iran and Gulf states on Strait of Hormuz shipping “in the interests of consensus,” Oman’s Foreign Ministry and Reuters reported; Iran said Saudi Arabia requested the delay citing events in Yemen, Al Jazeera reported. No new date was set. The postponement follows an Iranian commercial ship strike that killed one and wounded four, and a UKMTO report of a projectile strike on a vessel in the strait.
3. Washington. Eighty-six of 101 economists in a Reuters poll conducted after Friday’s inflation report now expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4.00% target range at its September 15–16 meeting — the first hike since July 2023 — reversing last week’s hold consensus. Interest-rate futures priced close to a 90% chance of an increase this week. A near-majority of forecasters, 37 of 70, expect at least one further hike by end-March. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces pressure from President Trump, who has pressed for cuts.
4. Kinshasa / DRC. The Democratic Republic of Congo’s Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak — the country’s worst on record — has passed 7,022 cases, with 3,398 deaths and 1,671 recovered, and has reached a seventh province, South Ubangi, Al Jazeera and Reuters reported. The government said the epidemic peaked in mid-to-late August and that cases are declining in some zones.
5. São Paulo. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva regained a slim lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a simulated runoff, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed Monday, Reuters reported. Lula would take 47% to Bolsonaro’s 46% in a runoff scenario — statistically tight given a 2-percentage-point margin of error — reversing a September 8 survey that had Bolsonaro ahead 46% to 45%. In a first-round scenario Lula led 42% to 37%. Separately, Brazil’s Supreme Court unsealed further material on a Bolsonaro biopic-financing probe. The first round is October 4.
6. Toronto. Prime Minister Mark Carney opened a two-day summit pitching more than 160 Canadian projects to global investors — including BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Blackstone’s Jon Gray, Temasek, and Dutch pension giant APG — amid the U.S. trade war, Reuters reported. Ottawa is targeting C$1 trillion in investment over five years.
7. Air Force One / US–China–Iran. President Trump brushed aside a Wall Street Journal report that Chinese entities supplied Iran with satellite imagery of a Jordan base before a July strike that killed three U.S. troops, equating U.S. and Chinese spying, Reuters reported. China rejected the accusations.
8. Naha / Okinawa. LDP-backed Genta Koja won about 59% of the vote to defeat Governor Denny Tamaki, ending 12 years of anti-base-leaning governors in Okinawa, Reuters and Al Jazeera reported. Koja accepts the Henoko base relocation, a result that may give Tokyo a freer hand on military buildup.
9. Panguna / Bougainville. Autonomous Bougainville President Ishmael Toroama condemned an attack on the Panguna mining camp in which machinery was burned at a site linked to Lloyds Metals, Reuters and RNZ reported. Toroama said he will continue to press for a copper-mine restart.
10. Moscow. The Kremlin welcomed President Trump’s call for Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian diesel facilities; spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Gulf instability is driving energy markets, Reuters reported. Russia’s diesel export ban remains in focus ahead of the State Duma election September 18–20.
Coming up. Tuesday–Wednesday 15–16 September — Federal Open Market Committee, Washington, with the Summary of Economic Projections. Sunday 20 September — Russia State Duma election. Tuesday 22–Saturday 26 and Monday 28 September — UN General Assembly high-level week, New York. October 4 — Brazil general election (first round). The standing calendar is at The Watch.
Sources: Reuters; BBC; Al Jazeera; Oman Foreign Ministry; RNZ; Associated Press.
