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Carney Tells Washington to Stop Memes Before Trade Talks: September 2, 2026

OTTAWA – Prime Minister Mark Carney told the Trump administration on Tuesday to “stop doing memes, stop throwing shade and stop trying to be tough” before U.S.-Canada trade talks can restart, a day after his Liberals swept three special elections.

“When the Americans stop doing memes, stop throwing shade and stop trying to be tough, and start being serious about having those discussions, we can have those discussions,” Carney told reporters. He said U.S. terms would have left Canadian industries as subsidiaries or “gradually wound down in Canada and wiped out,” and that Ottawa would not accept an “uncompetitive” autos deal or limits on Canada’s future trade pacts.

Talks collapsed Aug. 21. Washington then imposed 50 percent tariffs on roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods. Canada’s dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs on nearly $20 billion in U.S. goods are due Sept. 8, with duties from 15 to 50 percent. Trump has pushed renaming Lake Ontario “Lake America.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Canada cannot go “tit for tat” with an economy 13 times larger.

Carney also called a Pentagon social-media jab at Canadian cadets “beneath their office.” The Liberal wins Monday lifted the party to 173 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons.

Sources: The Associated Press; Reuters.

Mexican Forces Kill Los Reyes Cartel Leader Sought by U.S.: September 2, 2026

MEXICO CITY – Mexican soldiers killed Luis Enrique Barragán Chávez, a Los Reyes cartel leader sought by the United States with a reward of up to $3 million, in a Michoacán shootout, the defense ministry said Tuesday.

Troops struck in Tocumbo after military intelligence work, authorities said. Gunmen opened fire; soldiers returned fire and killed Barragán and another suspected associate. Public Security Secretary Omar García Harfuch said Barragán, also known as “El Güicho,” “Wicho,” or “R5,” coordinated avocado-grower extortion for the Los Reyes faction of Cárteles Unidos.

Barragán faced a U.S. provisional arrest warrant for extradition and a U.S. indictment on drug conspiracy and firearms charges. The State Department had advertised the reward. García Harfuch said the operation, coming weeks after the capture of prior Los Reyes figure Alfonso Fernández Magallón, removed the group’s top leaders within a month.

Michoacán Governor Alfredo Ramírez Bedolla said forces remain deployed across avocado municipalities near the Jalisco border. Michoacán has long seen cartel fights over drugs and farm extortion aimed at U.S.-bound produce.

Sources: Reuters via The Straits Times; UPI.

U.S. and Iran in Biggest Fire Exchange Since July: September 2, 2026

WASHINGTON / DUBAI – The United States and Iran fought their biggest exchange of fire since July on Wednesday, with American forces striking Revolutionary Guard sites along Iran’s southern coast and Tehran firing missiles and drones at U.S. interests across the Gulf.

U.S. Central Command said it hit IRGC air defenses, radar, maritime assets, mine-laying capabilities, and communications after what it called recent Iranian attempts against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and American troops. Iranian media reported strikes near the strait, including areas around Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, and Qeshm.

The Iranian Red Crescent said four people, including a child, were killed and more than 50 injured when shrapnel from a U.S. strike hit a home hosting a wedding celebration in Sirik County. A U.S. Navy captain speaking for Centcom told the BBC the military was aware of those reports and said, “The US military never targets civilians, unlike the IRGC.”

Iran answered overnight into Wednesday with ballistic missiles and drones toward U.S. sites in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq’s Kurdistan region, Iranian state media said. Jordan’s armed forces said they intercepted 13 ballistic missiles, destroying 10; three fell in remote areas with no deaths or injuries. Kuwait said its air defenses were responding. Asian and European stocks tumbled as oil prices jumped toward levels last seen in July.

The flare-up ends weeks of relative quiet after President Trump halted an intense July bombing campaign. Both sides have traded fire on shipping in and around the strait, which normally carries about a fifth of the world’s oil.

Sources: Reuters; BBC.

World Brief, Evening: September 1, 2026

U.S. strikes IRGC targets in Iran and Tehran fires back, Nepal’s flood toll climbs past 1,050, and Berlin blames Moscow for the Leipzig drone plot. Ten stories as of Tuesday evening, September 1.

1. Strait of Hormuz / southern Iran. The U.S. launched a new wave of airstrikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in Iran on Tuesday, then said the wave was complete, Reuters and AP reported. U.S. Central Command said forces hit air defenses, radar, maritime assets, mine-laying sites, and communications, citing recent IRGC attempts against shipping in the strait and American troops. Iranian officials and the Red Crescent said a strike in Kuhestak, Sirik County, hit a house hosting a wedding, killing four or five people including a child and wounding more than 50; the U.S. says it does not target civilians. Iran answered with missiles and drones toward U.S. interests in Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Oil settled at a five-week high after rising more than $4 a barrel.

2. Nepal–Tibet border. Nepal’s disaster agency raised the death toll from last Wednesday’s glacial collapse and flash floods to about 1,050, with roughly 3,900 still missing, the BBC and Guardian reported Tuesday. Including 16 dead in Tibet, the combined toll is past 1,066. More than 600 hydropower workers are still believed trapped in mud-filled tunnels along the Trishuli. Rescuers keep blasting and digging with foreign help; only about 4 percent of recovered bodies in Nepal have been identified. A UNDP preliminary note said warning signs on the glacier were visible before the collapse.

3. Kyiv. Russia bombarded the capital for more than 12 hours overnight into Tuesday, killing at least 12 people on a sixth straight day of heavy strikes, AP and Reuters said. Eight died in Kyiv, most of them Ukrzaliznytsia railway workers when a depot was hit; four more died in the surrounding region, including Brovary/Boryspil reporting. Ukraine’s air force counted ballistic and cruise missiles plus 218 drones and decoys from 6 p.m. Monday, with many jet-powered. Strikes also hit Odesa and the Orlivka ferry crossing on the Romanian border as school resumed.

4. Berlin / Leipzig. Germany on Tuesday formally blamed Russia for last month’s attempted drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport and ordered diplomatic counter-measures, Reuters reported. Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt said police work and intelligence establish Russian responsibility for the August 4 hybrid attack, when an explosive-laden drone was found near a Ukrainian cargo plane. Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Russia’s Bonn consulate will close September 18 and the Russian House agreement in Berlin will be ended, with tighter entry controls and more EU sanctions listings. Moscow denied the charge and vowed a response.

5. Ituri / eastern Congo. Schools reopened across Congo on Tuesday in the middle of the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak. Government figures as of Tuesday stood at about 6,100 confirmed cases and 2,950 deaths since mid-May, AP reported from Bunia. The Ituri teachers’ union had asked to delay the term; the government pressed ahead, and some government schools in the epicenter saw low turnout. There is still no approved vaccine made for Bundibugyo; Ervebo, built for a different strain, is going to front-line workers and into trials.

6. Koror / Palau. At the 55th Pacific Islands Forum, China’s Pacific envoy Qian Bo kept pressing “consequences” over Taiwan’s presence after Taipei’s foreign minister attended opening events, AP and The Guardian reported. Australia and New Zealand said the Pacific bloc, not an outside capital, sets the guest list. Roughly a third of member leaders remain absent. The leaders’ retreat is Thursday; the week runs through Friday.

7. Bishkek. SCO heads of state adopted the Bishkek Declaration on Tuesday as the organization marks 25 years, with Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Narendra Modi among those present, per the SCO readout and Al Jazeera. The package runs to 28 documents on security, transport, digital policy, energy, and climate. The declaration condemned military strikes against Iran and “unilateral coercive measures,” and called for a multipolar order. On the sidelines, Modi told Putin the Ukraine war must end for humanity’s sake.

8. Caracas / Washington. Detail kept dripping on the U.S.–Venezuela oil arrangement. A White House fact sheet said North American Blue Energy Partners would get a 100-year lease on 17 Venezuelan fields holding about 65 billion barrels, with the U.S. taking a 35 percent equity stake and a guaranteed 20 percent of production, Reuters reported. Some majors are hesitant to sit at the same table as the U.S.-backed vehicle; Chevron is still expected to expand separately. Energy Secretary travel and signing papers remain on this week’s track.

9. Ottawa / Washington. A day after his Liberals swept three special elections, Prime Minister Mark Carney told reporters the United States needs to “stop doing memes, stop throwing shade and stop trying to be tough” before trade talks can resume, AP and Reuters said. Talks collapsed August 21; Washington has imposed 50 percent tariffs on a large Canadian goods package. Canada’s dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs are due September 8. Trump has also pushed renaming Lake Ontario “Lake America.”

10. Asheville. G20 finance ministers and central bank governors wrapped their U.S.-hosted sitting Tuesday. German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil called geopolitical uncertainty “poison for economic growth,” citing the Iran war, U.S. tariff fights, and China, Reuters reported. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hosted the money track toward December’s Miami leaders’ summit and pressed growth, imbalances, and secondary pressure on Iran. Russia’s Anton Siluanov attended in person for the first time since 2022; Europeans objected.

Coming up. Sunday 30 August–Friday 4 September — Pacific Islands Forum, Palau (leaders’ retreat Thursday). Wednesday 9–Thursday 10 September — ECB rate decision, Berlin. Saturday 12–Sunday 13 September — BRICS summit, New Delhi. Sunday 13 September — Sweden general election. Monday 15–Tuesday 16 September — Federal Reserve FOMC with projections, Washington. The standing calendar is at The Watch.

Sources: Reuters (Iran), BBC (Nepal), AP (Kyiv), Reuters (Germany), AP (Congo), AP (Palau), SCO, Al Jazeera (SCO), Reuters (Venezuela), AP (Canada), Reuters (G20).

Carney Liberals Sweep Three Special Elections: September 1, 2026

TORONTO — Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals swept three special elections Monday in Quebec, Toronto, and British Columbia, strengthening his hand in an escalating trade fight with President Trump.

The striking pickup was Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, a Conservative seat since 2018 in an aluminum and dairy district hit by U.S. tariffs. Liberal Daniel Gobeil, a dairy farmer, won easily; the Conservatives fell to about 13 percent and third place. Liberals also held Beaches–East York in Toronto, with Tanveer Shahnawaz, and North Vancouver–Capilano, with Carney’s former deputy chief of staff Braeden Caley.

The sweep lifts the Liberals to 173 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons. “At this consequential time for Canada, voters have placed their trust in our government’s plan,” Carney said in a statement. Liberal lawmaker Hedy Fry told the CBC, “The United States is getting a message tonight.”

U.S.–Canada talks collapsed Aug. 21. Trump then imposed 50 percent tariffs on roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that Canada had limited leverage because the U.S. economy is about 13 times larger. Carney has vowed to cut Canada’s reliance on the United States. The Associated Press reported the Monday results from Toronto.

Sources: The Associated Press; BBC.

White House Details Venezuela Oil Joint Venture: September 1, 2026

WASHINGTON — The White House on Monday filled in the Venezuela oil arrangement President Trump called the biggest in history: a joint venture with North American Blue Energy Partners covering 17 fields and about 65 billion barrels, with the Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital taking a 35 percent stake.

The fact sheet, reported Tuesday, said interim President Delcy Rodríguez is giving NABEP 100-year rights over the fields. The United States is guaranteed the right to buy 20 percent of output at cost through the State Department, plus a right of first refusal on the rest. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio signed the U.S. side. The White House said the deal secures “our energy dominance for the next century.”

NABEP is controlled by Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt and is already the second-largest private operator in Venezuela, behind Chevron. The company has pledged up to $100 billion in new oil infrastructure. The White House said most of the incremental fields had been run by Russian or Chinese firms or by associates of former presidents Nicolás Maduro and Hugo Chávez.

Trump said Monday that pump prices would not fall immediately and that “if it was two years, you know, that’s a short period of time.” He said Venezuelan barrels would also help refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Rodríguez has framed the arrangement as sovereignty-preserving investment. Separate company talks, including with Chevron, continue. No full contract text has been published. Al Jazeera reported the fact sheet, citing the White House, AFP, AP, and Reuters.

Sources: Al Jazeera; Reuters; The Associated Press.

U.S. Strikes IRGC Targets in Iran: September 1, 2026

WASHINGTON — U.S. Central Command said American forces began striking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in Iran at 12 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, the first large U.S. wave since the weekend exchange over the Strait of Hormuz.

CENTCOM said the strikes followed “recent attempted attacks” by the Guards against commercial shipping in the strait and against U.S. service members in the region. Capt. Tim Hawkins, speaking for the command, told the BBC the military was aware of Iranian reports of civilian casualties and said the United States “never targets civilians, unlike the IRGC.”

The Iranian Red Crescent said four people, including a young child, were killed and more than 50 injured when shrapnel hit a home hosting a wedding in Sirik, in southern Iran, after a U.S. missile strike. Iranian media also reported explosions around Bandar Abbas, Qeshm Island, Konarak, Chabahar, and an airport in Jiroft.

The Guards said they answered with ballistic missiles at a U.S. Marine site in Jordan. Jordan’s military said it intercepted 10 of 13 missiles and that the rest fell in open areas, with no deaths or injuries. President Trump called Tuesday’s strikes “large and powerful” and warned that if Iran retaliated it would be hit again “at a much harder and higher level.”

The fighting follows Sunday’s U.S. strike on launchers on Larak Island and Iranian missiles at U.S. bases in Jordan. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tuesday that if Washington returned to its June Memorandum of Understanding commitments, Tehran would reciprocate. The BBC reported the CENTCOM announcement; Al Jazeera said oil jumped more than 4 percent after the strikes.

Sources: BBC; Al Jazeera.

Bessent Opens G20 Finance Meetings in Asheville: August 31, 2026

ASHEVILLE, N.C. — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent opened the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors meetings at the Grove Park Inn on Aug. 31, 2026, launching two days of talks that run through Sept. 1 under the U.S. host year.

The Asheville session is a waypoint toward the G20 leaders summit scheduled for Dec. 14-15 in Miami.

Bessent framed the U.S. agenda around growth. “Economic growth is again the north star of our policies at home and our leadership on the world stage,” he said in an official post from the meetings, adding that the administration is “getting the G20 back to basics by restoring the purpose for which it was founded.”

The Treasury secretary posted the picture from Asheville.

The growth message sat alongside a heavier agenda. The Associated Press reported that Bessent pressed counterparts on Iran sanctions enforcement under the Treasury campaign known as Operation Economic Outcast, on shipping and energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and on tariffs and sovereign debt.

Coming up: G20 leaders are scheduled to meet Dec. 14-15 in Miami. Track it on the Journal of Occurrences Watch page.

Sources: The Associated Press; official posts by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

World Brief: September 1, 2026

Nepal’s flood toll passed 1,000, Russia hit Kyiv for a sixth day, and Iran tied Hormuz to the June deal. Ten stories as of Tuesday, September 1.

1. Nepal–Tibet border. Nepal’s disaster agency said the death toll from last Wednesday’s glacial collapse and flash floods has crossed 1,000, the BBC reported. More than 3,900 people remain missing, including more than 600 workers believed trapped in mud-filled tunnels at hydropower sites along the Trishuli. Prime Minister Balendra Shah said Monday that 279 people had been rescued from the sites. Chinese state media still put Tibet’s toll at 16 dead and 546 missing. Only about 4 percent of roughly 900 bodies found in Nepal have been identified.

2. Strait of Hormuz / Bishkek. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tuesday that if the United States returns to its commitments under the June Memorandum of Understanding, Iran will immediately reciprocate, Reuters reported from Dubai. The pledge came after Sunday’s U.S. strike on Larak Island, Iranian missiles at two U.S. bases in Jordan, and reports that two Saudi oil supertankers were hit by unknown projectiles while leaving the strait late Monday. President Trump told Fox News, “We’re going to hit them hard,” while also telling reporters the renewed strikes did not mean a return to full-scale war. Brent rose another 1.3 percent Tuesday.

3. Kyiv. Russian air attacks killed 12 people in Kyiv and the surrounding region early Tuesday, authorities said, the sixth straight day of intense strikes on the capital. Eight died in Kyiv, most of them railway workers; four more were killed in Boryspil, including an Indian citizen, Reuters said. AP said the overnight assault also hit Odesa and other regions as school resumed. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha again asked allies for air defenses and energy support.

4. Ituri / eastern Congo. A new school year began across Congo on Tuesday even as parents and teachers in the Ebola epicenter urged delay. Government figures put the Bundibugyo outbreak at 6,100 confirmed cases and 2,950 deaths as of Tuesday, AP reported from Bunia. The Ituri teachers’ union had called for a pause; authorities pressed ahead, and some government schools saw low turnout. There is still no approved vaccine for this strain; Congo has been using Ervebo, made for Zaire ebolavirus, on a compassionate and trial basis.

5. Koror / Palau. China on Tuesday objected to Taiwan’s presence at the Pacific Islands Forum, saying Taipei is “not qualified” to take part, Reuters reported. Special envoy Qian Bo had already warned of “consequences” after Taiwan’s foreign minister attended opening events. Australia’s Anthony Albanese and New Zealand’s Winston Peters said the Pacific bloc sets its own guest list. The prime ministers of Fiji, Vanuatu, Samoa, and the Solomon Islands and Kiribati’s president remain absent; the leaders’ retreat is Thursday, with the week running through Friday.

6. Bishkek. SCO heads of state met Tuesday at the Yrys Ordo Congress Hall for the organization’s 25th-anniversary sitting. Leaders adopted the Bishkek Declaration and signed a package of documents on security, trade, and technology; Kyrgyz reporting put the signed set at 28. Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi were among those present, per the Kremlin readout and Anadolu Agency. Pakistan is due to take the next chairmanship.

7. Asheville. G20 finance ministers and central bank governors wrapped the second day of their U.S.-hosted meeting. German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil said geopolitical uncertainty is “poison for economic growth,” citing the Iran war, U.S. tariff disputes, and China, Reuters reported from the sidelines. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has pressed growth, imbalances, and Iran sanctions through the money track toward December’s Miami leaders’ summit.

8. Caracas / Washington. The White House on Monday filled in details of the Venezuela oil arrangement: a joint venture with North American Blue Energy Partners covering 17 fields and about 65 billion barrels, with the Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital taking a 35 percent stake, AP reported. Interim President Delcy Rodríguez has framed the deal as sovereignty-preserving investment. Separate company talks, including with Chevron, continue on the energy-reform track.

9. Canada. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals swept three special elections Monday in Quebec, Toronto, and British Columbia, AP reported. The win in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord flipped a Conservative seat held since 2018; the sweep lifts the Liberals to 173 seats in the 343-seat House. The votes landed amid collapsed U.S.–Canada trade talks and 50 percent U.S. tariffs on roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods.

10. Estonia. NATO fighter jets scrambled overnight after drones entered Estonian airspace during a wider wave of aerial activity near the Russian border, Estonian officials said. Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna called the incident “a direct consequence of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine,” and Reuters noted Estonia’s defence forces linked the drones to a Ukrainian strike path against Russia. No crash in Estonia was reported; the air threat warning was later lifted.

Coming up. Tuesday 1 September — SCO heads of state, Bishkek (sitting today). Sunday 30 August–Friday 4 September — Pacific Islands Forum, Palau (leaders’ retreat Thursday). Wednesday 9–Thursday 10 September — ECB rate decision, Berlin. Friday 12–Saturday 13 September — BRICS summit, New Delhi. Sunday 13 September — Sweden general election. Tuesday 15–Wednesday 16 September — Federal Reserve FOMC with projections, Washington. The standing calendar is at The Watch.

Sources: BBC (Nepal), Reuters (Hormuz), Reuters (Kyiv/Estonia), AP (Kyiv), AP (Congo), Reuters (Palau), Kremlin (SCO), Reuters (G20), AP (Venezuela), AP (Canada).

World Brief, Evening: August 31, 2026

Trump vowed to hit Iran hard after the Larak exchange, Himalayan flood deaths held at 939 with tunnel blasts still under way, and Congo’s Ebola count cleared 6,000. Ten stories as of Monday evening, August 31.

1. Larak Island / Strait of Hormuz. After Sunday’s U.S. strike on two Iranian launchers on Larak Island—the first known American attack since late July—President Trump said Monday he would “hit them hard,” Fox News reported, while also telling Oval Office reporters the renewed fire did not mean a return to full-scale war. Iranian media put the Larak death toll at three; Nournews identified two as Revolutionary Guards Navy. Tehran said it had fired ballistic missiles at U.S. bases in Jordan; Trump said defenses downed missiles that could have caused damage. He also posted A.I. videos claiming Kharg Island was “blown to smithereens”; no such attack took place, and Iran’s oil chief called the post “laughable.” At the G20 in Asheville, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tehran was “lashing out kinetically because they are losing economically.” President Masoud Pezeshkian, with India’s Narendra Modi in Bishkek, said continuing the war is in no one’s interest. Reuters.

2. Nepal–Tibet border. Nepal’s disaster agency still put Monday’s toll at 939 dead and 3,925 missing (592 of them foreigners), six days after Wednesday’s glacial collapse; Chinese authorities report 16 dead and 546 missing in Tibet’s Gyirong County. Rescuers kept blasting into the hillside at Trishuli 3A and pumping air, the BBC reported, as families of more than 600 workers feared the window was closing. Prime Minister Balendra Shah said 279 people had been rescued from hydropower sites and 11,379 overall. A team entered one tunnel Monday and found no one. Australian tunnel expert Arnold Dix told the BBC the landscape looked lunar, with boulders bigger than houses. Downstream in Chitwan, authorities buried nearly 300 unidentified bodies recovered from the rivers.

3. Ituri / eastern Congo. Congo’s authorities said Monday that the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak has topped 6,000 confirmed cases and 2,911 deaths, with more than 1,360 recovered. AP called it the fastest-growing Ebola outbreak on record, spreading under insecurity, displacement, and a health workers’ strike. WHO says it remains out of control and is on track to surpass the 2014–16 West Africa epidemic. There is no approved vaccine or treatment for Bundibugyo; Congo began vaccinating front-line workers last week with Ervebo, made for a different strain. On Saturday, young people with machetes attacked a response team at a funeral near Mambasa.

4. Kyiv region. Russian drone attacks on Kyiv and the surrounding oblast stretched into a fifth day Monday, Reuters reported, with near round-the-clock sirens disrupting daily life. Early Monday strikes injured people and damaged warehouses, an apartment block, and a retail outlet; regional officials later put injuries in Pohreby as high as eight. Friday’s strike on an ammunition depot in Myla still stands at 38 dead—the year’s deadliest Russian hit in Ukraine so far. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Sunday Russia had launched nearly 1,500 drones over four days, more than half jet-powered.

5. Asheville. G20 finance ministers and central bank governors sat Monday and continue Tuesday at the Omni Grove Park Inn, per the U.S. Treasury schedule. Secretary Scott Bessent is hosting the money track toward the December leaders’ summit in Miami. On Sunday he told Reuters that G20 members should re-examine trade with China to shrink imbalances. On Monday he tied Iran’s missile fire to secondary sanctions pressure. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is with him. Ireland’s Simon Harris is speaking for the EU presidency alongside ECB President Christine Lagarde.

6. Caracas / Washington. Detail kept dripping on Friday’s U.S.–Venezuela oil announcement. Interim President Delcy Rodríguez has described 17 fields, about 65 billion barrels, and a 25-year frame; Trump has spoken of majority U.S. control and a longer concession. No full contract text has been published. A White House spokeswoman told CBS News the president will meet U.S. refiners and distributors on Tuesday to discuss the arrangement. Al Jazeera, citing Reuters, said officials are preparing to sign exploration and production papers this week, including with Chevron. Analysts still flag legal and infrastructure risks.

7. Koror / Palau. The 55th Pacific Islands Forum opened Monday with at least five heads of government absent: Fiji, Vanuatu, Samoa, Solomon Islands, and Kiribati, Reuters said. Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale left after a no-confidence motion at home; Kiribati’s Taneti Maamau joined Smaller Island States sessions virtually. Palau President Surangel Whipps Jr. is hosting through Friday under Building Economies: Life, Action, Unity. China has questioned Taiwan’s presence; Taipei’s foreign minister Lin Chia-lung is in Koror. Dialogue partners including the United States and China are back after last year’s exclusion. The leaders’ retreat is Thursday.

8. Bishkek. Xi Jinping met Vladimir Putin on Monday on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s 25th-anniversary meetings, a day before the Council of Heads of State sitting. Xinhua quoted Xi saying the foundation of China–Russia relations would become stronger under their “strategic guidance.” Putin called the partnership a model of interstate relations. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Ukraine came up only in passing. Iran’s Pezeshkian and India’s Modi were also in Bishkek; an SCO Plus format follows the heads’ sitting Tuesday.

9. The Hague / Kashmir. The Permanent Court of Arbitration said Monday the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty remains fully in force and India must limit work on the Ratle hydroelectric plant. India had suspended the treaty after last year’s Kashmir attack; Pakistan says the western rivers water about 80 percent of its farms. Reuters reported the Hague ruling. India rejected the order, saying the court has no jurisdiction. A World Bank–appointed neutral expert is due to judge the plant by July 2027.

10. Niamey. Niger’s capital remained calm Monday after the weekend mutiny. AP said Russia’s Africa Corps intervened with ground and aerial support after mutineers held Base 101 at Diori Hamani airport. Ambassador Viktor Voropayev said the mutineers were “neutralized particularly thanks to” Africa Corps. Reuters sources said kamikaze drones were used. Junta leader Abdourahamane Tiani had still not made a public appearance. Algeria sent jets; AES allies Mali and Burkina Faso condemned the “betrayal.”

Coming up. Monday 31 August–Tuesday 1 September — G20 finance ministers, Asheville (wrapping Tuesday). Tuesday 1 September — SCO heads of state, Bishkek. Sunday 30 August–Friday 4 September — Pacific Islands Forum, Palau (leaders’ retreat Thursday). Wednesday 9–Thursday 10 September — ECB rate decision, Berlin. Saturday 12–Sunday 13 September — BRICS summit, New Delhi. The standing calendar is at The Watch.

Sources: Reuters (Hormuz), BBC (Nepal), AP (Congo), Reuters (Kyiv), U.S. Treasury, Reuters (G20), CBS (Venezuela), Al Jazeera (Venezuela), Reuters (Palau), PIF Secretariat, Xinhua (SCO), Reuters (Indus), AP (Niger), Reuters (Niger).