Lula pulls off the comeback in Brazil, Serbia’s Aleksandar Vučić concedes to the students, and María Corina Machado is back in Venezuela. Meanwhile, Israel’s army chief is reported to be pushing back on Netanyahu two days before the vote. Ten stories as of Sunday evening, October 25.
1. São Paulo and Brasília / Brazil. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won a fourth term, beating far-right Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff. With nearly 99% of votes counted he had 51.75% to Bolsonaro’s 48.25%, The Guardian reported. Three weeks ago he lost the first round by 2.2 million votes. Tonight he won by 4.3 million, the first time a first-round runner-up has come back since democracy returned in the 1980s. Turnout helped: abstention fell from a record 21.08% to 19.21%. Electoral court president Kassio Nunes Marques recognised the result, but Bolsonaro said it was “impossible to concede” and that his lawyers will try to get the election annulled. Lula, who turns 81 on Tuesday, starts his new term on January 5, 2027, and he’ll face the most right-wing Congress of Brazil’s democratic era, BBC News notes.
2. Belgrade and Novi Sad / Serbia, and Sofia / Bulgaria. “It is clear that we have lost these elections,” Vučić told supporters at his Serbian Progressive Party headquarters, conceding to the student-led movement that grew out of two years of protests over the Novi Sad canopy collapse. He said the Student List would get 135 to 140 of parliament’s 250 seats and his party about 105, The Guardian reported. A CeSID-Ipsos sample put it at 138 to 104. Pollsters had turnout at 67.6% by 7 p.m., the highest since Yugoslavia broke up. Crowds danced in Belgrade’s Slavija square and in central Novi Sad. “Serbia is free,” one student told BBC News. Next door, Bulgaria’s presidential race goes to a November 1 runoff: exit polls had incumbent Iliana Iotova at about 35–36.5% and pro-Western ex-caretaker PM Andrey Gyurov at 31–33.5%, on turnout of only about 22% by 8 p.m., per Al Jazeera.
3. Lara and Caracas / Venezuela. Opposition leader María Corina Machado is home after more than 10 months in exile. “I am here. With you,” she posted, and she was photographed at Mass in Lara state before heading for Caracas in a caravan of supporters, BBC News reported. An adviser said in September that she’d been turned back seven times. Her spokesman thanked Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio and called the return “a major step toward a democratic transition.” Trump said he didn’t “know anything about” it but hoped she was safe. Since U.S. forces seized Nicolás Maduro in January, Washington-backed Delcy Rodríguez has served as interim president; Maduro is jailed in New York and has pleaded not guilty.
4. Tel Aviv and Palmahim / Israel. Two days before Tuesday’s election, Channel 12 reported an “unprecedented confrontation” between Netanyahu and IDF chief of staff Eyal Zamir. Zamir is said to be resisting an unspecified order for military action tied to Iran and asking for signed legal authorization, The Times of Israel reported. The report described the mood at a meeting at Palmahim airbase Sunday as “extremely sour.” Netanyahu called the report “nonsense” and said “there was no fight.” His main rival, ex-army chief Gadi Eisenkot, and his centrist Yashar party have regularly pipped Likud in recent polls, BBC News notes.
5. Washington, Tehran and Riyadh. Leaving the White House for Michigan, Trump was asked whether the U.S. might strike Iran today. “Would I tell you that? The answer is no. There will not be a strike today,” he said, per The Jerusalem Post. Earlier he told Fox News, “Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal?” Iran’s foreign ministry says messages are still going to Washington through intermediaries, AP reported. Over in Saudi Arabia, the coalition intercepted another Houthi ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh, Al Jazeera reported. CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper visited the Strait of Hormuz, The National reported.
6. Scotland, London and northern Europe. Storm Boelo killed two men on Sunday, both hit by falling trees: a 60-year-old near Castle Douglas in Dumfries and Galloway, and a man in his 20s whose car was struck in Finchley, north London, BBC News reported. More than 90,000 UK properties were still without power at 19:00 GMT, and gusts hit 85 mph at Machrihanish. Boelo and Storm Austen hit within about 24 hours. About 59,000 homes in France, mainly in Normandy and Brittany, were still without power at midday, and in Germany a blackout around Freiburg left the main hospital taking emergencies only, Al Jazeera reported.
7. Orléans / France, Prague and Rome. Marine Le Pen launched her presidential campaign in Orléans in front of what organisers said were 8,500 supporters, promising a French “renaissance” and to “re-establish the rule of law” against a backdrop of mass protests, Al Jazeera reported. Several thousand marched in Prague’s Old Town Square against Prime Minister Andrej Babiš’s bill to scrap public media licence fees, which the lower house fast-tracked in a 4:36 a.m. vote, per Al Jazeera. In Italy, protesters briefly forced their way into the Colosseum on Saturday; police arrested nine and briefly detained 371, including 110 minors, ABC News reported.
8. Taraba / Nigeria, Makueni / Kenya, and Kampala / Uganda. The death toll from Friday’s raid on Binnari village has risen to at least 48, Taraba police told BBC News. Some victims drowned trying to flee, and Amnesty puts the toll at 52. The Kenya church bus crash near Mtito Andei now stands at 24 dead and 24 hurt. Officials say the bus driver was overtaking when he hit an oncoming cement truck, Al Jazeera reported. And Uganda ordered a 21-day quarantine for citizens coming back from DR Congo, as Ebola cases in Kenya and Nigeria raise questions about travel through the country, per Al Jazeera.
9. Michigan and Alaska / United States. Nine days out from the midterms, Trump rallied for Michigan Republicans in Port Huron, brought rapper Nicki Minaj on stage, and went after Democrat Abdul El-Sayed’s Muslim faith, claiming he would “invite jihadists” into America, BBC News reported. On the Sunday shows, Attorney General Todd Blanche defended the Justice Department’s suit to block certification of Alaska’s Senate result. “Why is this controversial?” he asked CNN, per Al Jazeera. Democrat Mary Peltola, who is challenging Sen. Dan Sullivan, had minor injuries in a car crash in Anchorage on Saturday and pushed back events in Fairbanks and Bethel, The Guardian reported.
10. Canberra / Australia. Parliament paused Monday for tributes to independent MP Helen Haines, who lost both legs in an alleged attack outside her Wangaratta office. Her first words on waking were about her staff’s safety and thanks to the bystanders who helped, fellow MP Allegra Spender said, The Guardian reported. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called her “a fighter” and warned against a “normalisation of the language of grievance and violence.” Opposition leader Angus Taylor disagreed that robust debate leads to violence. A 43-year-old man has been charged.
Coming Up
Confirmed dates on The Watch: October 27, Israel’s election for the 26th Knesset, as the Fed’s two-day meeting opens in Washington (October 27–28). November 1, Bulgaria’s presidential runoff (Iotova vs Gyurov). November 3, U.S. midterms. Full board at the link.
