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France’s Prime Minister Calls for Partial Curfews as Macron Refuses His Interior Minister’s Resignation Over the Riots: October 19, 2026

PARIS — French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said Monday he had asked regional authorities to impose “local and partial” curfews in some cities, after the government conceded that police had “lost control” in several places during a weekend of rioting and looting, The Guardian reported.

Speaking after an emergency cabinet meeting, Lecornu said he was “fully resolved to restore public order” and that there was “no question” of a full curfew on entire cities such as Paris. A state of emergency could be declared if deemed necessary, he said, but partial curfews seemed “more appropriate” for now. He did not say which cities would be affected.

Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez said he had offered his resignation because he felt “responsible for everything that happened.” President Emmanuel Macron refused it, instead asking him to “take all necessary steps to ensure transparency over the failures in planning and intelligence that led to the violence” and to roll out new methods for dealing with looters, as Al Jazeera reported.

Nuñez acknowledged a “lack of anticipation.” Intelligence had pointed to about 200,000 demonstrators nationwide; more than 500,000 turned out. “You couldn’t look shopkeepers in the eye after hundreds of shops had been looted and say we hadn’t lost control,” he told French radio. About 60,000 police and other security forces had been deployed.

Nearly 2,400 people were arrested, about 70% of them adults, and almost 1,000 police officers and gendarmes were injured, authorities said. Paris Mayor Emmanuel Grégoire said about 30 shops were targeted in the capital on Sunday, with a further 350 arrests overnight. On Monday, protesters blocked the entrances to the Louvre, which could not open as scheduled.

Markets were rattled. France’s 10-year government bond yield rose 10 basis points to 4.89%, widening the gap with German borrowing costs, and the CAC 40 index fell 1.2% in morning trading, The Guardian reported.

Sources: The Guardian, Al Jazeera, The Guardian (markets)

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Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Trade Insults in a Bitter First Debate a Week Before Brazil’s Presidential Run-Off: October 19, 2026

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro traded insults and corruption accusations in their first head-to-head debate on Sunday night, a week before Brazil’s Oct. 25 presidential run-off, BBC News and DW reported.

Bolsonaro, standing for the Liberal Party, won 47% of the vote in the Oct. 4 first round to Lula’s 45.2%, and polls suggest the two are neck and neck, the BBC reported. Since Brazil’s return to democracy in 1988, no candidate who trailed in the first round has gone on to win the run-off, though Lula has told supporters he will “win in extra time.”

Lula called Bolsonaro “a habitual liar, a thug,” alluding to his alleged ties to Rio de Janeiro’s paramilitary groups, and said, “It is striking how the Bolsonaro family is subservient to American interests,” accusing him of conspiring to “hand over” Brazil’s rare earth minerals to the United States, as DW reported.

Bolsonaro, who dismisses the militia allegations as fake news, said it was better to keep his distance “so that my wallet isn’t stolen,” and held up the palm of his hand, on which he had written “CORRUPTO.” Campaigning on an iron-fist approach to crime, he challenged Lula to explain why crime rose during his term. Lula pledged to open his and his family’s financial and phone records to judicial scrutiny and dared his rival to do the same.

Analysts said personal attacks crowded out policy. “The independent voter, who is sometimes against Bolsonaro and sometimes against the Workers’ Party, came out of it with a very negative impression,” said Yuri Sanches of the pollster AtlasIntel. A second and final debate is planned for Friday.

Tens of thousands of supporters of both candidates rallied across Brazil before the debate, DW reported. In São Paulo, Bolsonaro supporters called for the release of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest over a coup attempt.

Sources: BBC News, DW

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Four Salvadoran Soldiers Missing in Haiti After Gangs Ambush and Torch Their Armored Vehicle in the First Major Attack on the New Force: October 19, 2026

PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti — Four Salvadoran soldiers serving with the U.N.-authorized Gang Suppression Force remained unaccounted for Monday after suspected gang members ambushed their armored vehicle and set it ablaze just east of Haiti’s capital, El Salvador’s armed forces said, the Miami Herald reported.

“The armored vehicle was struck by explosives and caught fire. However, all four military personnel managed to escape from the vehicle,” the armed forces said in a statement. Salvadoran military helicopters sent to support them also came under fire, and “multiple attempts have been made to reach the area by land and air, but these efforts have been hampered by the intensity of the fighting and security conditions in the area.”

The soldiers, aviation technicians with El Salvador’s Liberty Task Force II, were reportedly returning to their camp from a market when they were ambushed at about 1:30 p.m. Sunday in Santo, in the Croix-des-Bouquets area, an area controlled by the 400 Mawozo and Chen Mechan gangs. Earlier reports, including by The New York Times citing people familiar with the situation, had put the number missing at five.

The Gang Suppression Force said its personnel returned fire and deployed helicopters to search for the soldiers, and it urged residents of Santo and surrounding communities to stay indoors until further notice.

It is the first major attack on the force, which has more than 1,500 troops on the ground from Chad, El Salvador, Guatemala, Jamaica, Mongolia and Sri Lanka, with 4,000 more expected in the coming months, according to the Miami Herald. The U.N. Security Council extended its authorization for another six months last month.

Haiti’s gang crisis has claimed more than 22,000 lives since 2021, The New York Times reported.

Sources: Miami Herald, The New York Times

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Alberta Votes on Whether to Start the Legal Path Toward a Referendum on Leaving Canada: October 19, 2026

EDMONTON, Alberta — Voters in Alberta go to the polls Monday to decide whether the oil-rich Canadian province should begin the legal process toward a binding referendum on leaving Canada, the first time the province has put the question of separation to a public vote, BBC News and NPR reported.

Premier Danielle Smith called the vote after a grassroots group gathered about 300,000 signatures on a petition seeking a binding referendum on separation, the BBC reported. A rival petition opposing separation drew more than 400,000 signatures in a province of about five million people.

The key question asks: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?” Voters are also deciding nine other questions, several of them on whether the province should have more control over immigration.

Polls suggest most Albertans will vote to stay, and pollsters generally estimate that about one in five support separation, according to NPR. Smith, who opposes separation herself, has said she will respect the result; if voters back moving ahead, a binding referendum could come as soon as 2027, she has said.

Prime Minister Mark Carney returned to his hometown of Edmonton last week to urge Albertans to stay. “A vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep uncertainty and lost opportunities for Albertans and Canadians,” he told a unity rally.

Separatists argue that Ottawa’s environmental policies have stifled Alberta’s oil and gas sector. A government-commissioned University of Calgary report estimated that separating could cost as much as 170 billion Canadian dollars over five years, NPR reported. In May, an Alberta court ruled that the separatist petition violated Indigenous rights because First Nations had not been consulted; the province has appealed.

Ballots are counted by hand. Counting begins no earlier than 8 p.m. local time (7 p.m. Pacific), with the separation question tallied first, and officials have said its result should be available in the early hours of Tuesday, the BBC reported.

Sources: BBC News, NPR

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Australian MP Helen Haines Critically Injured After Being Deliberately Hit by a Car Outside Her Office, Albanese Says: October 19, 2026

WANGARATTA, Australia — Australian independent lawmaker Helen Haines was in critical condition on Monday after being struck by a car outside her electorate office in Wangaratta, Victoria, in what Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called a deliberate act, CBC News, NPR and Al Jazeera reported.

“This wasn’t an accident. There was a deliberate act, it would appear. We don’t know what the motivation is,” Albanese told the Australian Broadcasting Corp. Haines, 65, was airlifted to hospital, he said.

Police said a Toyota Land Cruiser struck Haines outside her office in the regional city, about 200 kilometers (124 miles) northeast of Melbourne. Bystanders detained the 43-year-old driver and handed him over to police, who found a knife in the vehicle, Victoria Police acting Superintendent Ashley Mason said, as Al Jazeera reported. Police said there was no further threat to the public.

Albanese said the motive was not yet known and that the national counterterrorism team, which brings together police and intelligence agencies, was investigating, NPR reported.

Haines has represented the rural Victorian seat of Indi since 2019, after three decades in rural health care as a nurse, midwife and academic. In Parliament she has championed climate action and regional housing and worked with the Labor government to establish the National Anti-Corruption Commission, CBC News reported. Albanese called her “a thoroughly decent, respectful human being.”

Her family thanked “the swift assistance of bystanders and the dedicated health workers who assisted her, and police for their response” in a statement posted on her Facebook page.

Opposition Leader Angus Taylor called it a “shocking day” for Australia. “Our nation cannot become a place where violent attacks are normalized,” he said. Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke said police recorded more than 1,000 threats against politicians in the 2025-26 financial year, and Australian Federal Police Commissioner Krissy Barrett said in 2025 that threats against parliamentarians had doubled over three years.

Albanese said there had been “too much shouting, not enough discourse,” adding that there was “no question” social media played a part.

Sources: CBC News, NPR, Al Jazeera

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World Brief, Evening: October 18, 2026

Emmanuel Macron told France he feels “anger and shame” after riots that ended in nearly 2,400 arrests; Canada named the four soldiers killed in the Wainwright fire on the eve of Alberta’s referendum; and Donald Trump endorsed Benjamin Netanyahu nine days before Israel votes. Ten stories as of Sunday evening, October 18.

1. Paris / France. In a televised address from the Élysée on Sunday evening, Macron called for “calm and order,” said “nothing justifies” the “unbridled” violence and told the country, “We all feel anger and shame,” BBC News reported. He drew a line between protesters with “legitimate demands” and “those who destroyed, smashed and looted,” promised “full transparency” over how police handled the day, and said local prefects can ban some street gatherings if needed, per The Guardian. He stopped short of a state of emergency or curfew but announced a crisis unit for urgent aid, Al Jazeera reported. The interior ministry says nearly 2,400 people were arrested and about 1,000 police and gendarmes hurt on Saturday, seven seriously; traders’ unions count more than 1,500 shops ransacked. Clashes flared again Sunday at Place de la République in Paris, with tear gas and stun grenades. A 17-year-old lost his right hand to a crowd-control grenade in Saint-Étienne, and a 17-year-old girl lost an eye in Mulhouse. The far right’s Jordan Bardella called the speech “lamentable” and “cowardly,” and Jean-Luc Mélenchon said the government was “solely responsible” for failing to keep order. Macron posted the address on X:

2. Wainwright / Alberta, Canada. Four soldiers died and 39 people are in hospital, at least 19 of them critical, after a grass fire swept through Canadian Forces Base Wainwright during live-fire training on Saturday, Premier Danielle Smith said Sunday evening, BBC News reported. The military named the dead as Sgt Morgan Wong of the Loyal Edmonton Regiment and Privates Shaun Farrell, Aidan Goulding and Hayden Lykkemark of the 3rd Battalion, Princess Patricia’s Canadian Light Infantry. Maj.-Gen. Wade Rutland said the fire started about a kilometre away and winds of up to 96 km/h suddenly turned it toward soldiers on an attack range: “That is not normal for a fire to move a kilometre in 36 seconds,” per The Guardian. The cause is under investigation and the military says there’s no sign of terrorism or of oil and gas infrastructure being involved. Prime Minister Mark Carney, addressing the nation from Ottawa, called it “one of the worst tragedies for the forces on Canadian soil in peacetime” and ordered flags at half-mast. Albertans vote Monday on whether to start down the road to a binding independence referendum; polls point to a loss for the separatists, Al Jazeera noted.

3. Washington / United States, and Kyiv / Ukraine. Trump said his suspension of new Russia sanctions is meant to keep Moscow talking: “I am in the process of negotiating Peace,” he wrote on Truth Social, adding he didn’t want to “drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table,” and claimed Volodymyr Zelenskyy “doesn’t want to end this war, and probably never did,” BBC News reported. Zelenskyy told NBC’s Meet the Press that U.S. intelligence warnings on Russian ballistic missiles, cut off for three days, had been “deblocked… We are very thankful,” but said the Starlink slowdown in Ukraine was “a message from [the] American government… technically, SpaceX did it,” per The Guardian. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called that charge “very reckless.” Zelenskyy also warned that siding with Vladimir Putin would be a “historic mistake.” On the ground, two people were killed and at least 17 hurt as both sides kept hitting each other’s power grids.

4. Jerusalem / Israel. Trump gave Netanyahu his “Complete and Total Endorsement” ahead of the October 27 election, calling him a “Great Warrior Prime Minister” and writing, “If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so,” ABC News (Australia) reported. Netanyahu answered: “A friend of Israel wants Netanyahu to win.” Trump had declined to endorse him earlier this month in an interview with Time, per Al Jazeera. Hours before the post, Netanyahu warned that “in two years, a President, man or woman, could come to power who is very hostile to Israel,” and called for new alliances with India and Latin America, The Hindu reported. Separately, Austrian Airlines flight OS82 from Tel Aviv to Vienna diverted to Sofia after a bomb threat, escorted by a Bulgarian MiG-29; all 51 passengers and six crew got off, Al Jazeera reported.

5. Manama / Bahrain, and Riyadh / Saudi Arabia. Gulf Cooperation Council foreign ministers meeting in Manama condemned the Houthis’ repeated attacks on Saudi Arabia and said an attack on any of the six members affects them all, invoking their joint defence agreement, Al Jazeera reported. They urged tighter enforcement of the UN arms embargo and asked countries to designate the group a terrorist organisation. The Saudi-led coalition said it shot down drones near Riyadh and over the Eastern Province early Sunday, and fighting across Yemen has now displaced more than 233,000 people. In Riyadh, the 99-storey Kingdom Centre told tenants, including the International Monetary Fund, to work from home “until further notice,” and schools in the capital are online for a second week with King Khalid International Airport still shut, DW reported, citing AFP.

6. Nairobi / Kenya, and North Ubangi / DR Congo. Kenya confirmed its eighth Ebola case, a 49-year-old patient attendant who cleaned utensils and linens and was likely exposed to the country’s first case; one of 38 people tested Sunday came back positive, Director-General for Health Patrick Amoth told Citizen TV, Al Jazeera reported. He developed symptoms Saturday and was quarantined. That follows four cases confirmed Saturday, three of them health workers. Congo, where this Bundibugyo-strain outbreak began in May, has recorded at least 9,400 cases and more than 4,500 deaths, and said Sunday the virus has reached an eighth province, North Ubangi. There’s no vaccine or specific treatment for this strain.

7. Taipei / Taiwan. Taiwan’s coastguard said it confronted and drove off 16 Chinese coastguard, research and fishing vessels in coordinated “maritime harassment” operations around the main island and the Pratas islands, calling it “hybrid warfare,” Al Jazeera reported. Some ships reportedly entered restricted waters, and Taipei accused Beijing of “attempting to unilaterally alter the status quo” in the Taiwan Strait. China, which claims Taiwan, deployed a record 244 coastguard, research and other ships around the island in July, according to Taiwanese data, up from 58 a year earlier.

8. Hagåtña / Guam, Aitutaki / Cook Islands, and Jalisco / Mexico. Trump approved emergency declarations for Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands after Super Typhoon Champi passed about 10 miles south of Guam; by 4 p.m. Sunday local time it was 170 miles west of the island with 150 mph winds, moving away, RNZ Pacific reported. In the Cook Islands, Category 2 Cyclone Wati was forecast to pass over Aitutaki on Sunday local time before tracking over Mauke and Mangaia, with storm-force winds of 100 to 141 km/h possible. “It feels like she’s gonna come directly over the top of us,” Aitutaki mayor Nick Henry told RNZ. Off Mexico, the government dropped all warnings as Hurricane Trudy, at 100 mph (155 km/h) and 105 miles southwest of Cabo Corrientes at 2 p.m. MST, pulled away; it’s expected to weaken rapidly tonight, though another 1 to 4 inches of rain could fall in Jalisco, the National Hurricane Center said. And in Papua New Guinea, villagers on Lou Island in Manus say drought-fuelled wildfires have burned through about a third of the island, RNZ Pacific reported.

9. São Paulo / Brazil. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro traded insults in their first debate on Sunday night, a week before the October 25 runoff, AFP via CNA reported. Lula called his rival “a habitual liar, a thug” and said “he’s even worse than his father”; Bolsonaro shot back that “Brazil is going to retire you” and called Lula a “clown.” They clashed over crime, the economy, health and relations with the United States, per g1; Bolsonaro said he would classify the PCC and Comando Vermelho gangs as “narcoterrorist” organisations. On his father’s handling of Covid, Bolsonaro offered a “mea culpa.” He led the first round 47% to 45%.

10. Caracas / Venezuela. Venezuela’s main opposition alliance, the Unitary Democratic Platform, met in Caracas and agreed to “recognise and support the leadership” of exiled Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado, Al Jazeera reported. It renewed its demand for free elections and set out 14 proposals for a democratic transition, including the release of all political prisoners and a safe return for exiles. “The will of the Venezuelans must once again govern the destiny of our nation,” former candidate Edmundo González wrote. No date has been set for a new presidential vote; interim President Delcy Rodríguez has led the country since January 3 with White House backing.

Coming Up

Confirmed dates on The Watch: October 19, Alberta’s referendum on whether to move toward a binding independence vote. October 25, Brazil’s presidential runoff (Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula). October 27, Israel’s election for the 26th Knesset, and the Fed’s two-day meeting opens in Washington (October 27–28). Full board at the link.

World Brief: October 18, 2026

France’s government went into crisis talks as arrests from Saturday’s riots passed 2,000 and Emmanuel Macron prepared to address the nation; Ukraine hit St. Petersburg with one of its biggest drone raids of the war; and Canada still hasn’t put a number on the dead from the blast and fire at CFB Wainwright, a day before Alberta votes. Ten stories as of Sunday morning, October 18.

1. Paris, Limoges and Marseille / France. The government held crisis talks Sunday after one of the most violent days of unrest in years, with public buildings burned, hundreds of shops looted and politicians on the left and right calling for Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez to resign, The Guardian reported. Nuñez posted that “more than 2,000 people have been taken into custody” and more than 600 police, gendarmes and firefighters were hurt; one demonstrator died after a heart attack, and Macron will speak at 8 p.m. Paris time (11 a.m. Pacific) after meeting Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, Politico Europe reported. Paris alone logged a record 855 arrests. Limoges mayor Guillaume Guérin said his municipal police “had run out of munition” as rioters torched the 19th-century town hall — “a colossal failure of the state.” Retailers counted about 1,500 shops damaged, per BBC News. Cost-of-living and housing protests have also spread to Lisbon and Milan.

2. St. Petersburg / Russia, and Kyiv / Ukraine. A “massive” Ukrainian drone attack killed at least one person and injured five in St. Petersburg, Governor Alexander Beglov said, with fires at the city’s oil terminal, the Ruchi oil depot and warehouses in Kolpino; Pulkovo airport restricted flights, an Ozon logistics hub caught fire and a VK data centre was hit, Al Jazeera reported. Russia’s defence ministry said it downed 1,015 drones overnight; about 20,000 people in the Leningrad region lost power. In Zaporizhzhia, Russian strikes killed a woman and wounded a six-year-old girl, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said “the Kyiv regime is resisting, but this cannot change the course of events,” per The Guardian. Zelenskyy says Russia has hit Ukraine’s energy sector 76 times since Trump declared an “energy ceasefire” a week ago. Separately, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Ukraine has asked for access to Starshield, SpaceX’s military-grade service, for deep strikes, and that it’s “under conversation,” Al Jazeera reported. Sunday morning Zelenskyy said he’d spoken with Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner about “the results of our teams’ meeting in Florida”:

3. Wainwright / Alberta, Canada. Several people were killed or injured in the fire at Canadian Forces Base Wainwright, the military said, but casualty figures won’t be released until its assessment is complete; a defence spokeswoman said there were “no indications that it was the result of any terrorist activity,” BBC News reported. Global News, citing multiple military sources, reported at least seven dead and dozens injured after a live-fire training exercise hit a gas line or gas well around 4 p.m. Saturday. Edmonton’s Royal Alexandra Hospital declared a code orange, and an ER doctor there called it “a one in every 15 to 25-year disaster.” Winds gusting up to 100 km/h pushed the fire past the base fence, AP via NPR reported. Albertans vote Monday in the referendum on whether to move toward a binding independence vote.

4. Cairo / Egypt, and Najran / Saudi Arabia. Egypt’s parliament put off its vote on President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s request to authorize military support for Saudi Arabia, with debate continuing Monday so “all lawmakers” can speak; MPs said they mostly back it, and no details of what that support would look like were discussed, AFP reported via Kuwait Times. Before the session, the National Defence Council chaired by Sisi pledged “all necessary and possible support” to the kingdom, Al Jazeera reported; Egypt’s constitution needs both bodies to sign off before troops deploy abroad. In southern Saudi Arabia, two officers died when a National Guard reconnaissance helicopter crashed in Najran because of a technical malfunction, coalition spokesman Turki al-Maliki said, per Anadolu; the coalition denied a Houthi claim to have shot it down, The Times of Israel reported.

5. Gaza City / Gaza, and Taybeh / occupied West Bank. Israel’s halt on commercial goods entering Gaza is in its fifth day, and the prices of flour, eggs, onions and other staples have climbed sharply since Wednesday amid a dispute over fees involving Palestinian merchants and Hamas, Al Jazeera reported. Hundreds attended a mass funeral Sunday at Sheikh Radwan Cemetery for 75 Palestinians whose remains were recovered from destroyed homes in Gaza City’s Daraj neighbourhood, per Al Jazeera. In the West Bank, the EU said it expects “full accountability as well as effective measures” after settlers attacked European diplomats in Taybeh, and Belgium said it will keep pushing for EU sanctions on those responsible, BBC News reported.

6. Gwalior / India. A heavily loaded truck ploughed into devotees gathered at a temple during a Hindu festival in Gwalior, Madhya Pradesh, early Sunday, killing 13 people, the Press Trust of India said, citing hospital officials, AFP reported via Dawn. President Droupadi Murmu called the deaths “heartbreaking.” It came a day after at least 19 people died in a crush at a Durga Puja pavilion in Kolkata.

7. North Ubangi / DR Congo, and Nairobi / Kenya. Congo’s Ebola outbreak has spread to an eighth province, North Ubangi on the border with the Central African Republic, where the national biomedical institute confirmed two cases, including one death, Reuters reported. It joins North Kivu, Ituri, Haut-Uele, Tshopo, South Kivu, Bas-Uele and South Ubangi. Next door in East Africa, Kenya’s count stands at seven after three health workers and a relative of the first patient tested positive, Al Jazeera reported.

8. Cabo Corrientes / Mexico. Hurricane Trudy had 105 mph (165 km/h) winds at 8:00 a.m. MST Sunday, about 115 miles (185 km) southwest of Cabo Corrientes, and is expected to start moving away from mainland Mexico this afternoon before passing south of Baja California Sur Monday and Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center said in Advisory 21. Mexico downgraded its Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning, now from Playa Perula to San Blas plus Las Islas Marías. Another 2 to 6 inches of rain, locally around 12, could fall in Jalisco, with life-threatening flooding and mudslides possible. Rapid weakening is forecast from tonight.

9. Hagåtña / Guam, and Aitutaki / Cook Islands. Champi reached super typhoon strength as it passed about 10 miles south of Guam’s southern tip at 4:26 a.m. Sunday local time, the National Weather Service said, and a direct hit “would have been devastating”; storm surge flooded Inalåhan’s pool and winds tore roofs off pavilions in Humåtak, The Guam Daily Post reported. It’s forecast to reach Category 5 by Monday as it moves away. To the southeast, Aitutaki has activated its emergency operations centre as Category 2 Cyclone Wati approaches, with damaging gales averaging 95 km/h and gusts to 130 km/h expected from Sunday, RNZ Pacific reported.

10. São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro / Brazil. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro meet Sunday evening in their first televised debate, a week before the October 25 runoff; Lula skipped the first-round debate, AFP reported via News24. Bolsonaro, who led the first round, holds a rally on São Paulo’s Paulista Avenue first, while singer Caetano Veloso has called a “rally for democracy” on Copacabana beach. Two polls this week had Bolsonaro’s lead narrowing to 51% to 49%.

Coming Up

Confirmed dates on The Watch: October 19, Alberta’s referendum on whether to move toward a binding independence vote. October 20 (Japan time), JAXA is set to launch its MMX mission to bring back samples from Mars’s moon Phobos. October 25, Brazil’s presidential runoff (Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula). October 27, Israel’s election for the 26th Knesset, and the Fed’s two-day meeting opens in Washington (October 27–28). Full board at the link — we don’t reprint the whole list here.

Typhoon Champi Swerves at the Last Minute and Spares Guam a Direct Hit From 140 mph Winds: October 18, 2026

HAGÅTÑA, Guam — Guam narrowly escaped a direct hit from Category 4 Typhoon Champi early Sunday after the storm made a last-minute turn to the west, keeping its most destructive winds largely offshore, RNZ reported.

Champi passed closest to the U.S. territory at 4:26 a.m. Sunday local time (11:26 a.m. Saturday Pacific), about 16 kilometers (10 miles) south of Merizo in southern Guam, with maximum sustained winds of 225 km/h (140 mph), National Weather Service Guam meteorologist Landon Aydlett said.

“Certainly, we had a near miss of this typhoon in all its intensity,” Aydlett said, as RNZ reported. “We’ve been very fortunate this morning.” He said an eyewall replacement cycle and dry air entering the storm overnight kept Champi from reaching super typhoon strength and limited the flash flooding that had been feared.

Guam International Airport recorded sustained winds of 72 to 88 km/h with gusts approaching 128 km/h, and Andersen Air Force Base saw gusts of 112 km/h. Southern Guam was hardest hit, under an extreme wind warning from about 4 a.m. to 5:30 a.m. “Stay in safe shelter. Don’t let your guard down,” Aydlett told residents.

The Northern Mariana Islands also avoided the worst. Rota remained under a typhoon warning, while Saipan and Tinian stayed under tropical storm warnings and typhoon watches. The governors of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands had requested emergency disaster declarations on Friday, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency said resources were unlikely to reach the islands for three to five days, The Guardian reported.

The islands are still recovering from Super Typhoons Sinlaku and Bavi, which struck in April and July.

Sources: RNZ, The Guardian

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Venezuela Expects Nearly $76 Billion in Oil Investment Over Five Years Under New Deals, Including a U.S. Accord Covering 17 Fields: October 18, 2026

CARACAS — Venezuela expects nearly $76 billion in oil investment over the next five years under recently signed agreements, acting President Delcy Rodríguez said Saturday, adding that a bilateral accord with the United States includes plans to drill 250 rigs, Reuters reported.

“Major investments are coming,” Rodríguez said on national television. “We are talking about investment of almost $76 billion over five years. Those investments will translate into direct benefits for our country in a win-win partnership, because our partner will also benefit,” she said, as Reuters reported.

She said the U.S. accord covers 17 oil fields and is part of a broader package of 61 agreements signed by the parties, El Economista reported.

Rodríguez also highlighted a production recovery in western Zulia state, where she said output had risen from 70,000 barrels per day to 370,000 bpd and was expected to reach 400,000 bpd by the end of 2026. She did not say over what period the increase occurred.

Since the January ouster of President Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela has been reopening its energy sector to foreign investment with the backing of President Donald Trump’s administration. The country has the world’s largest proven crude reserves but produces well below the levels of a decade ago after years of underinvestment, operational problems at state oil company PDVSA and U.S. sanctions on the energy sector.

Sources: Reuters, El Economista

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Kenya’s Ebola Cases Climb to Seven as Three Health Workers Who Treated the First Patient Test Positive: October 18, 2026

NAIROBI — Kenya has confirmed four new cases of Ebola caused by the Bundibugyo virus, bringing its total to seven, including one death, the Ministry of Health said.

Three of the new patients are health workers — two men and a woman aged 29, 35 and 32 — who cared for the country’s first patient on Oct. 3 and 4 and had been in quarantine since Oct. 9, the ministry said, according to KBC. The fourth is a close male relative of the first patient who had been in quarantine since Oct. 6.

The first patient died on Oct. 5 after falling ill in the Democratic Republic of Congo and flying to Nairobi on Oct. 3, Al Jazeera reported. Congo’s epidemic has recorded more than 9,000 cases and more than 4,300 deaths since it was officially detected in May.

Director General for Health Dr. Patrick Amoth said all four new patients developed fever while in quarantine and were isolated immediately. “Since all the four new cases have been in quarantine, they were diagnosed early limiting risk of further spread of the disease,” he said, while warning that more cases among quarantined contacts are possible until their 21-day monitoring period ends.

The ministry said 128 of 130 identified contacts — 98.5% — have been traced and quarantined, above the 85% global benchmark, and that there is no evidence of community transmission. The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said it would keep supporting Kenya’s response and stressed protective equipment and training for frontline health workers.

There are currently no vaccines or treatments for the Bundibugyo strain, Al Jazeera noted. Amoth said Kenya remains open for business, with no restrictions on travel, trade or public gatherings.

Sources: KBC, Africa CDC, Al Jazeera

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